Just as in Vegas: you bet too often, you get too cocky, you lose big. Buoyed by my relatively accurate predictions for the opening-weekend box-office totals for the Sex and the City and Get Smart movies, I returned to the table to bet again, on the summer's third and final TV-to-film offering, X-Files: I Want to Believe.
I predicted an opening-weekend take of $50 million. I was off by... oh, about $40 million...
Yes, The Dark Knight continues to gobble up audiences at an amazing rate, but reviews for the new X-Files film were mixed at best, even from movie critics who were fervent fans of the series. But why the movie pulled only an estimated $10.2 million -- some $7 million below industry projections, and only 20 percent of my own guess -- is a mystery of sorts.
But that mystery may have been solved in advance by the TV WORTH WATCHING reader identified as Talbert, who was the only reader to come close. Only two others, Elisa and Phillip R. Crabb, offered guesses below the $20 million mark, and theirs were in the $19 million range. Talbert was much more pessimistic, and explained why:
"Have any idea how many flavors of the week have been on and off the cool menu board since X-Files charmed the fickle chasers of the trendy?" he asked. "Nor do I, but it's a lot." His prediction: "$12 million tops, and lucky if it gets that high."
The rules of the contest stated that the winner would be the person who guessed closest without going over. Since no one went under -- and since the prizes I'm offering are even cheaper than I am -- I'm announcing Talbert as the winner anyway. (No sense waiting for the adjusted totals on this one.)
Talbert, I'll contact you by email, so you can claim your prize from among such snazzy options as a Discovery Channel leather-bound writing journal and a Blue's Clues note pad. Two readers named Chris can verify that, eventually, I do send out these goofy little things.
Meanwhile, I have to slink back to my office with the realization that my imagined future career as an accurate predictor of movie grosses is not to be.
My dead-on guesses for Sex and the City and Get Smart? I now have to admit that, like one of the most memorable monsters of the old X-Files TV series, they were just a fluke, man...