I had intended to devote today's column to ABC's
Boston Legal finale (thoroughly delightful), then to Craig Ferguson's remembrance of his mother on CBS's
Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson(touchingly emotional). Both deserve fuller attention -- and will get in, in this space, in the coming days.
But today's breaking-news topic, trumping the others, is NBC's reported decision to turn over its 10 p.m. hour each weeknight next fall to a new talk show hosted by Jay Leno.
In a business sense, looking at it from the perspectives of NBC executives Jeff Zucker and Ben Silverman, this must seem like sheer brilliance. Here are some reasons it seems like a smart move:
1) It keeps Leno from defecting to another network, thereby eliminating one possible high-profile competitor when Conan O'Brien takes over The Tonight Show next year as scheduled. That transition was Zucker's call, so this helps him save face.
2) A talk show is even even cheaper to produce than a reality show. Today, for example, is the most profitable show on television -- so NBC will save tons of money, over a calendar year. Megatons.
3) If Leno's popularity brings more people to the party at the 10 p.m. ET hour, ratings go up, and local affiliates benefit by having a stronger lead-in to their late local newscast.
But making sense financially, and making sense creatively, are two different things -- and I'm not sure either Zucker or Silverman cares about the creative thing. At TV WORTH WATCHING, we do, and here are some reasons I think the move is not only questionable, but unfortunate.
1) It means five fewer hours each week, in prime time, that will be devoted to scripted drama on NBC. With its Biggest Loser reality show and Deal or No Deal game show and others, it's already gobbling up too many hours with cheaply produced unscripted programs -- and if you add the Law & Order franchises to the mix, there aren't many hours left.
2) In programming terms, NBC now becomes more like Fox or the CW, essentially programming two hours nightly instead of three. And with TV's most mature dramas reserved for the 10 p.m. hour, this means NBC and its programming will be more immature. Which, after Knight Rider, hardly seemed possible.
3) Talk-show audiences are divided into three groups. Some love the host and tune in faithfully. Some hate the host, and won't watch no matter what. And some will tune in if the guests are interesting to them, or if they happen to be in the mood to watch TV and can't find anything else more interesting.
Some people love Conan, for example, and will follow him eagerly to The Tonight Show. Some Tonight regulars, on the other hand, can't stand Conan, and may defect. Take that equation to prime time, and to a new Jay Leno talk show. Some people will watch because of Jay -- but those who don't like Jay are now predisposed to reject NBC in the final hour of prime time, five nights a week, all year long.
4) Adding one more nightly network talk show to the TV mix is like expanding major league baseball -- teams get diluted, because there's only so much decent talent to go around. If Jay books a timely A-list guest at 10, it alters the booking options for Conan at 11:30. Poaching guests from competing shows on oter networks is one thing -- but Jay's show, by its very existence, could end up hurting The Tonight Show, especially with its early jump. Maybe NBC hasn't thought of that, but I'm betting Jay Leno has... and is smiling privately.
5) No talk show, no matter how good, is Must-See TV. Yes, it's cheaper and easier to mount a talk show that to produce a scripted show people actually care about. But a generation ago, when tasteful executives like Grant Tinker and Brandon Tartikoff ran NBC, the 10 p.m. hour was home to such shows as Hill Street Blues, St. Elsewhere and L.A. Law -- all in the same TV season, every week.
By shifting from Must-See TV to Must-Profit TV in a generation, NBC is in danger of bleeding its peacock mascot of all colors but green. Good for business. Bad for television.