The expectations and predictions regarding Jay Leno's move to prime time, and Conan O'Brien's inheritance of NBC's
Tonight Show, were thought to be the biggest moves regarding the late-night TV wars of 2009. All of that might be eclipsed, though, by what happens next after David Letterman's surprising Thursday night admission...
What are we to make of all this? On CBS's Late Show with David Letterman, Letterman delivered his "story" candidly, unemotionally but incompletely: For the past few weeks, he's been blackmailed by someone threatening to expose Letterman's sexual encounters with certain female staff members. The inference, though nothing was made clear, is that at least one of these took place after Letterman married his long-time girlfriend earlier this year.
A grand jury has gotten involved, and a sting that caught the blackmailer in the act -- but what does this do to Letterman's image, and audience, and program, and reputation?
Show business is so weird and unpredictable, the only accurate prediction is to guess that one of three things will happen. One, the controversy, as it develops, will have no measurable effect. Two, Letterman will lose viewers, just as he was gaining substantial ground opposite O'Brien in the 11:35 p.m. ET time slot. Three, the controversy, because of America's fascination with all things prurient, will bring Letterman even more viewers.
My guess is that this is an unexploded bomb that may or may not go incendiary, depending upon what happens in the next few weeks, how Letterman handles things, and how it's received. But no one saw THIS coming. And I wonder: Among the late-night comics, who will consider this fair ground for humor?
Will Leno or O'Brien, who got the Tonight Show though Letterman did not? Will Craig Ferguson, whose paycheck is SIGNED by Letterman? And will Letterman himself return to the topic, or avoid it assiduously?
Who would have thought that, in looking for a reason to make the late-night TV rounds this fall, the most compelling reason would be provided by a Letterman scandal? Stay tuned. Definitely.