Now that Jay Leno has landed -- and landed at a surprising place, in prime time on NBC -- the other players in the late-night wars of 2008-09 can begin planning their moves...
DAVID LETTERMAN: His option is whether to wind down and ride into the sunset when his contract is up next year, or extend his CBS Late Show hosting chores for one year, or two years, or more. Staying put makes sense, especially for a one-year extension, to see whether audiences shift at all when it's Dave vs. Conan rather than Dave vs. Jay at 11:30. But going out on your own terms is what Dave's idol, Johnny Carson did, so that's got to be an attractive option as well.
CONAN O'BRIEN: He said yesterday he's thrilled that Leno is staying in the NBC family, but he can't be happy that Leno will take not only much of his thunder, but some of his guests. Still, Conan is locked in to inherit The Tonight Show next year -- and for any talk-show host, that's a dream come true, regardless of what happens next.
JIMMY KIMMEL: If ABC hires someone else for an 11:30 ET talk show and asks Kimmel to remain at 12:30, that may be enough to get Kimmel to walk -- but to where? Fox and syndication are two options, but they're also options for other players, ones that may have more of a shot at widespread appeal. And if Kimmel moves earlier, does his show have to soften to fit the time slot?
CRAIG FERGUSON: Of all the talents currently in play on broadcast TV, this Late Late Show CBS host is the one with the brightest future, whatever he does. His show Monday night, saluting his recently deceased mother, was another of those raw, honest TV moments that make you love the guy. On a TV Sincerity Index from 1 to 10 -- 1 being the always ironic Conan, 10 being the late Fred Rogers -- Ferguson, like Letterman, can hit 9s and 10s when he chooses to. It's a great, rare gift, exemplified early and often in late night by Jack Paar, and Ferguson should continue to grow wherever he's planted.
He's also got reasons to both stay and leave, with his contract up next year as well. If Letterman calls it quits, or signs for one final year, then staying at CBS and shifting to the earlier time slot might make sense to Craig. If Letterman signs up for a longer haul, then checking the other waters is an obvious Plan B. He'd be a good fit at Fox, and a good bet to lure more viewers than Jimmy Kimmel in an 11:30 slot at ABC.
JIMMY FALLON -- Late night's other Jimmy, whose show in NBC's current Conan slot begins March 2, would seem to be another loser in Leno's prime-time shift -- but I don't necessarily think so. His guest bookings are bound to be markedly different, and Fallon is young and savvy enough to use new technology and communication streams to build audience loyalty in ways no other TV host has, or could.
Leno got all the attention with his announcement, but Fallon's nightly videos began being offered this week on his website. In the first, he introduced his house band, The Roots. In the second, he showed off the miniature model of his new set -- showing it excitedly to website viewers as he was seeing it for the first time.
No one's ever done that before in late night. And doing something new, and being enthusiastic about it, is what created and propelled late-night TV in the first place. So Jimmy Fallon, even as the third NBC talk show every weeknight, shouldn't be counted out prematurely.
The victory in the next round of late night wars, after all, might not be claimed on the battlefield of broadcast TV ratings -- but on who gets the most website hits and views. By building his audience online in advance, Jimmy Fallon may be planting his flag in just the right place.