We now know that Conan O'Brien's era as host of NBC's
Tonight Show is at an end, and that Jay Leno will resume his former late-night throne in five weeks. The next question to ask -- and it's an enticing one, regarding CBS's David Letterman -- is "WWDD?"
As in, "What Will Dave Do?"...
The last time Letterman and CBS squared off against a reboot of The Tonight Show, it was June 1, the launch of The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien. O'Brien didn't have Leno as a prime-time lead-in then -- he had the premiere of a new NBC reality series (actually, a horrid revival of an equally bad ABC series), I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!
(Insert your own joke here. Make sure to include irony.)
[Note: For the rest of this story, the late-night hosts will be referred to by their first names. Since this entire battle has been personalized beyond belief, it seems only fitting.]
For Conan's first night at the helm of Tonight, he wanted to signal that his was a younger, different Tonight Show. His guests: Will Ferrell and Pearl Jam.
Seven months later, Conan's guests on his final show (Friday at 11:35 p.m. ET) are scheduled to be Tom Hanks and, once again, Will Ferrell.
When Conan premiered in June 2009, what did Dave do to counter-program?
He could have scheduled a week of reruns, let Conan have his day (and his week), then come back swinging after the initial curiosity had abated. Instead, he led with his best punch, programming for his own demographic by presenting Bill Cosby.
By night two, Dave had more overall viewers than Conan -- fewer in the coveted younger demographic, but nonetheless a victory Dave hadn't notched against Jay's Tonight Show in about a decade.
So the question now becomes "What Will Dave Do?"
On March 1, will Dave play opossum, or play hardball?
My guess: hardball.
No one knows, at this point, how many of Jay's formerly loyal Tonight viewers have been disenfranchised by this latest late-show mess, and defected to Dave for good. It's a good guess that Jay's first night back on Tonight, like Conan's first night there, will be victorious. But why make it easy? Why doesn't Dave give his newly won fans, and especially his old ones, reasons to stay tuned?
So whom should Dave counter-program, against Jay's March 1 NBC return, as his special guest on CBS?
Conan O'Brien.
Think of it.
Given the choice of what would count as Must-See TV that night -- Jay gloating over his Machiavellian return to late night, or Dave and Conan swapping razor-sharp barbs about it -- whom do you think would have more viewers on Monday? And, at least equally important, more YouTube hits the next day?
Skip the rerun option. Give Dave a fresh opening monologue, a Jay-related Top 10 List, and Conan as the first guest, and that's a show almost impossible to reject.
Dave vs. Conan? That lasted seven months.
Dave PLUS Conan? That's a one-night stand for the ages...